Global energy efficiency is improving at just 1.3% per year since 2019 — barely half the pace recorded in the decade before, and a fraction of the 4% annual improvement that governments committed to pursuing at COP28. That gap between ambition and reality is exactly the kind of problem Bill Gates has spent years thinking about, and his conclusion might surprise people expecting a call for revolutionary breakthroughs.
The secret, Gates has written, isn’t one dramatic leap forward. It’s small improvements, repeated consistently over time. And the numbers coming out of the International Energy Agency suggest the world hasn’t yet learned that lesson.
What sounds like motivational advice turns out to be a hard-edged observation about how real change actually happens — in energy systems, in technology, and in the everyday decisions millions of people make without thinking much about them.
The Gap Between Where We Are and Where We Need to Be
The IEA’s latest figures lay out the problem clearly. Energy efficiency progress averaged around 2% per year between 2010 and 2019. Since 2019, that pace has slipped to just 1.3% annually. The agency projects an improvement to 1.8% in 2025 — movement in the right direction, but still less than half the 4% target governments backed at COP28.
That shortfall isn’t just an abstract policy number. In practical terms, it means the world is consistently leaving energy savings on the table — savings that would lower costs, reduce emissions, and ease pressure on strained power grids.
The distance between current progress and stated targets is large enough that incremental household actions alone can’t close it. But that doesn’t mean those actions are worthless. Multiplied across millions of homes and repeated over years, they add up in ways that matter.
What Bill Gates Actually Said — and Why It Matters Here
Gates has written that “there are things everyone can do” even while acknowledging that the most impactful changes “must happen at the governmental level.” That’s a more nuanced position than either pure individualism or pure policy-dependence.
The examples aren’t glamorous: turning down the thermostat, sealing a drafty attic, rescuing leftovers instead of letting food go to waste. None of these acts alone changes anything measurable. But Gates’s broader argument — that transformation comes from small improvements repeated over time rather than single dramatic leaps — reframes what those everyday choices are actually doing.
His own career in technology is often cited as evidence of this. Microsoft didn’t emerge from one breakthrough moment. It was built through iterative development, compounding improvements, and sustained effort over decades. The same logic, Gates suggests, applies to the energy and climate challenge facing the world now.
The Numbers Behind the Story
The data from the IEA makes the scale of the challenge concrete. Here’s how the efficiency progress figures compare across different periods and targets:
| Period / Target | Annual Energy Efficiency Improvement |
|---|---|
| 2010–2019 average | ~2.0% |
| 2019–present average | 1.3% |
| IEA projection for 2025 | 1.8% |
| COP28 government-backed target | 4.0% |
The trend is moving in the right direction — 2025 is projected to be better than the post-2019 average. But the gap between 1.8% and 4% is enormous, and it won’t be closed by good intentions alone.
- Global efficiency gains have slowed significantly compared to the prior decade
- The 2025 projection of 1.8% represents improvement but remains well below the 2030 commitment
- The COP28 target of 4% annual improvement is more than double the current trajectory
- Individual actions — while meaningful at scale — cannot substitute for structural policy changes
Why This Affects You, Even If You’re Not Thinking About It
Energy efficiency isn’t a topic that tends to generate strong feelings. But the consequences of falling short are practical and personal. When efficiency stagnates, energy costs stay higher than they need to be. When homes and buildings waste heat or electricity, that waste gets priced into bills. When governments miss their efficiency targets, the pressure to find emissions reductions elsewhere increases — often in ways that cost more.
The actions Gates points to — adjusting thermostats, insulating homes, reducing food waste — aren’t just environmentally symbolic. They cut household expenses. They reduce the load on energy systems that are already under pressure. And when adopted widely, they create the kind of aggregate improvement that policy targets are designed to measure.
The frustration embedded in the IEA data is that the tools to do better already exist. This isn’t a situation where the world is waiting for a technology that hasn’t been invented yet. The gap between 1.3% and 4% isn’t a gap in capability — it’s a gap in adoption, investment, and political will.
What Closing the Gap Would Actually Require
Gates’s framing — individual actions matter, but systemic change is essential — points toward what the path forward looks like. Household habits can shift efficiency numbers at the margins. But reaching the COP28 target of 4% annual improvement requires action at a different scale entirely.
Governments committed to that target at COP28. The IEA’s numbers show the world is currently running at less than half that pace. The projected improvement to 1.8% in 2025 is a step, but the trajectory needs to accelerate significantly to meet the 2030 deadline governments agreed to pursue.
The argument Gates makes — that sustained, repeated small improvements are the mechanism behind large-scale change — is both a challenge and a source of realistic optimism. The pace can improve. The question is whether individuals, institutions, and governments will treat consistency as seriously as ambition.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current global rate of energy efficiency improvement?
According to the International Energy Agency, global energy efficiency has improved at an average of just 1.3% per year since 2019, down from roughly 2% annually between 2010 and 2019.
What target did governments agree to at COP28?
Governments backed a target of 4% annual energy efficiency improvement at COP28, which is more than double the current rate of progress.
What does Bill Gates say individuals can do?
Gates has written that there are things everyone can do, citing everyday actions like adjusting thermostats, improving home insulation, and reducing food waste — while also noting that the most impactful steps must happen at the governmental level.
Is the situation improving at all?
Yes, modestly. The IEA projects global energy efficiency progress will reach 1.8% in 2025, which is better than the post-2019 average but still far below the COP28 target.
Why does Gates believe in small improvements rather than big leaps?
Gates has argued that transformational change comes from small improvements repeated consistently over time, a philosophy reflected in his own career building Microsoft through iterative development over decades.</p
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