There is a 62% chance that El Niño will emerge between June and August this year, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center — and forecasters are warning that this particular event could be more powerful than most. If their models are right, global temperatures could be pushed to levels the world has never recorded before.
That’s not a distant, abstract threat. El Niño events touch virtually every corner of the planet — shifting rainfall patterns, intensifying droughts, fueling wildfires, and driving heat extremes that affect food production, public health, and daily life for billions of people. A supercharged version of the phenomenon raises all of those risks significantly.
The El Nino cometh.
This would push up our estimate for 2026 global temperatures (though its still unlikely to surpass 2024 as the warmest year), and make 2027 very likely to be the warmest year on record given the historical lag b/w ENSO and surface temp. pic.twitter.com/agqcicaYIa
— Zeke Hausfather (@hausfath) March 6, 2026
The timing matters too. The planet has already been warming steadily due to climate change. Layering a strong El Niño on top of that baseline heat is what has forecasters paying close attention right now.
What El Niño Actually Is — and Why “Super” Changes Everything
El Niño is the warm phase of a natural climate cycle known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. During an El Niño event, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean rise above normal levels. That shift in ocean heat has a cascading effect on weather systems around the world.
Not all El Niño events are equal. Some are mild and barely register beyond a slight uptick in global average temperatures. Others are strong enough to disrupt monsoons, trigger flooding in some regions, and cause devastating drought in others. A so-called “Super El Niño” refers to an event at the more extreme end of that spectrum — one where the warming of the Pacific is pronounced enough to amplify global temperatures significantly above where they would otherwise be.
What makes the current forecast particularly striking is the combination of factors at play. Background global warming has already pushed the planet’s average temperature higher than at any point in recorded human history. An unusually strong El Niño arriving on top of that elevated baseline is the scenario that has climate scientists and meteorologists most concerned.
What the Forecasters Are Actually Saying
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is the primary U.S. agency responsible for monitoring and forecasting ENSO conditions. Their recent announcement placed the probability of El Niño developing between June and August at 62%. That means forecasters consider El Niño more likely than not to arrive this year.
Here is what the current forecast picture looks like based on available information:
| Factor | Current Status |
|---|---|
| El Niño probability (June–August) | 62%, according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center |
| El Niño phase | Warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) |
| Projected impact | Potentially unprecedented global temperature highs |
| Key driver | Elevated Pacific sea surface temperatures combined with existing global warming |
| Forecast source | NOAA Climate Prediction Center |
The word “unprecedented” is being used deliberately here. Forecasters are not simply predicting that it will be warm — they are signaling that existing global temperature records could fall if a strong El Niño materializes as projected.
Why This Could Hit Harder Than Previous El Niño Events
El Niño years are already known to be warmer than neutral or La Niña years. That relationship is well established in climate science. Temperatures tend to run above average across large parts of the globe during an active El Niño, with some regions experiencing the effects more intensely than others.
What makes the current situation different is context. The world’s oceans have been absorbing an enormous amount of heat in recent years, and global average air temperatures have been trending upward consistently. When a strong El Niño is added to that already-elevated starting point, the combined effect can produce temperature anomalies that go beyond anything previously measured.
For everyday people, this translates into a higher likelihood of extreme heat events, disrupted agricultural seasons, water stress in regions already facing drought, and more intense weather patterns broadly. These are not hypothetical risks — they are the documented consequences of past El Niño events, now potentially arriving in a hotter world than any previous cycle had to contend with.
Who Feels It First — and Where the Risks Are Greatest
El Niño does not affect every region the same way. Some areas see increased rainfall and flooding risk. Others face prolonged dry conditions and heightened wildfire danger. Tropical regions, parts of South America, southern Africa, and Southeast Asia have historically been among the most sensitive to ENSO swings.
Agricultural communities are particularly vulnerable. Crop failures tied to El Niño-related droughts and floods have historically contributed to food price spikes and supply disruptions that ripple through global markets. A stronger-than-normal event amplifies those risks.
Public health systems also face pressure during extreme heat periods. Heat-related illness and death increase when temperatures climb beyond what populations are acclimatized to — and record-breaking heat, by definition, means conditions that existing infrastructure and health systems were not designed to handle.
What Comes Next and When We’ll Know More
NOAA and other major climate agencies around the world monitor ENSO conditions continuously. The June-to-August window cited in the current forecast is the period during which forecasters expect El Niño conditions to potentially become established, if the trend holds.
El Niño events typically peak in the Northern Hemisphere’s winter months — meaning the most intense global temperature effects, if this event develops as projected, could be felt toward the end of the year and into early next year.
Monitoring will continue through the coming months, and forecasts will be updated regularly as ocean and atmospheric data comes in. The 62% probability figure is not a certainty — conditions could shift. But the direction of the current signal is clear enough that forecasters felt it warranted a public warning.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is El Niño?
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural climate cycle driven by changes in Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures that affects weather patterns around the world.
What is the current probability of El Niño forming this year?
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has placed the probability of El Niño emerging between June and August at 62%, making it more likely than not.
Why are forecasters calling this a potential “Super El Niño”?
Forecasters are concerned that a strong El Niño arriving on top of already elevated global temperatures from long-term climate change could push global temperature records to unprecedented highs.
When would a Super El Niño have the most impact?
El Niño events typically peak during the Northern Hemisphere’s winter months, so the most intense effects would likely be felt toward the end of the year if the event develops as projected.
Which regions are most at risk from a strong El Niño?
Historically, tropical regions, parts of South America, southern Africa, and Southeast Asia have been among the most affected, experiencing disruptions to rainfall, agriculture, and temperature extremes.
Is El Niño definitely going to happen this summer?
The 62% probability means it is more likely than not, but it is not certain — forecasters will continue to monitor ocean and atmospheric conditions and update their projections in the coming months.
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